An above-average season according to Colorado State University’s first forecast
Researchers at Colorado State University’s (CSU) Hurricane Forecasting Service released the first forecast for the 2021 hurricane season last week.
Colorado State University researchers are predicting an above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, citing the likely absence of the El Niño weather phenomenon as a major factor.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicts 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
So far, the 2021 hurricane season has similar characteristics to 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2017, according to CSU researchers. “All of our analog seasons have had above-average Atlantic hurricane activity, with 1996 and 2017 being extremely active seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a researcher in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences and lead author of the report.
The report also includes the probability of 58% of major hurricanes making landfall in the Caribbean, compared to the average for the past century of 42%.
The April 2021 forecast estimates 17 named storms, 80 named storm days, 8 hurricanes, 35 hurricane days, 4 major hurricanes, 9 major hurricane days.
The CSU research team will issue forecast updates on June 3rd, July 8th, and August 5th.
